How Bernie Could Cause Trump to Get Elected Again
WASHINGTON — Joe Biden isn't the only presidential candidate whose allies believe the votes of Bernie Sanders' most defended supporters could concur the fundamental to his Nov success. President Donald Trump and his supporters believe the same.
In 2016, about 216,000 Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin voters backed the Vermont senator in the spring and Trump in the fall, co-ordinate to an analysis of exit polling — well over twice the president's full margin of victory in those states, which were critical to his electoral vote win in the face of a decisive popular vote loss.
If Sanders ultimately falls brusque once more this fourth dimension around, Trump's allies hope history repeats itself with the senator'due south nearly disaffected supporters — just they won't be leaving that prospect to chance, with a targeted try underway past groups who support Trump'south re-election to identify and target those voters.
Often, the public-facing pitch comes straight from the top.
"The last time we had a lot of Bernie Sanders supporters," Trump said during a Phoenix television interview last month when asked if he thinks he can win over some of Sanders' supporters if Sanders isn't the Democratic nominee in Nov. "I think if they take it away from him similar they did the last time, I really believe you're going to take a very riotous time in the Democrat Party."
That was more speculation. It'south a backup boxing plan for the demographic: If they tin can't win over disappointed Sanders voters, the president and his advisers believe they can at to the lowest degree convince many of them to stay home on Election Mean solar day or vote for a third-party candidate rather than support the Democratic nominee.
Sanders voters in 2020 accept indicated they are less probable than other voters to back the Autonomous nominee should their candidate non win the nomination. In an NBC News leave poll taken on Super Tuesday, fifteen percent of Sanders voters said they weren't committed to voting for the Democratic nominee, regardless of who information technology was, compared to ten percentage of Biden voters who said the same.
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Over the past calendar month, Trump has said more than two dozen times on Twitter and in public statements that the Democratic Political party is going to take away the nomination from Sanders and that the process is "rigged" confronting him.
"I think at that place's no question the establishment, the Democrat establishment, is trying to accept it away from Bernie Sanders," Trump told reporters Tuesday later a slew of Democratic officials came out in back up of Biden. "There's no question about that in my mind."
There are countless variables that will be at play in 2020 that could tip the scales from ane candidate to another; it isn't unheard of for primary voters to switch parties in the full general election if their candidate isn't the nominee. Just in an ballot that even Trump's allies believe will be adamant by the thinnest of margins, every vote will count.
Data analytics house WPA Intelligence has been working on a computer model using demographic and consumer data to try to predict who these crossover voters are so they can exist targeted past groups supporting Trump's re-election, said Chris Willson, the firm's CEO.
Nationwide, more than than 1 in 10 people who voted for the Vermont senator in the 2016 primary against Hillary Clinton ended up supporting Trump in the general election, totaling more than i.5 1000000 votes, according to an analysis of exit polls by Tufts University political scientific discipline professor Brian Schaffner, using information from the 50,000-person Cooperative Congressional Election Study.
About 7 pct of people who said they are enthusiastic most or comfortable with Sanders this time around, according to a February NBC/WSJ poll, say they voted for Trump in the 2016 election.
Trump's advisers say they are optimistic they can hang on to a significant number of Sanders-Trump voters regardless of which candidate Democrats nominate by touting the president's record on trade and immigration.
And the backup to the backup, if Sanders were to exist nominated: The 2016 voters Trump could lose to Sanders this time around, should he be the Democratic nominee, would be offset by winning over moderate voters turned off past Sanders' policies, said Republican strategists.
"Bernie'southward politics are too extreme for some suburban women who voted for Hillary in 2016," said Republican pollster Frank Luntz. "Only Bernie does win dorsum some white male union support that went with Trump that year."
The demographics of the crossover voters from 2016 suggests the Trump campaign has a proficient shot at hanging on to at to the lowest degree some of them even in a head-to-head contest with Sanders. Most half of that group identified themselves equally contained or Republican. Overall, they had a more unfavorable opinion of President Barack Obama and leaned more than conservatives on racial issues compared to other Sanders supporters, said Schaffner.
"Sanders' appeal to those groups was that he had this outsider appeal, he sort of ran as a populist and talked about issues that in some means addressed some of the aforementioned people Trump was trying to address, just in a different way," said Schaffner. "It's all theorize at this betoken, simply I call back if Bernie were the nominee he might take a take a chance at winning over some of this group, simply probably non all of this group."
What happens to Sanders' supporters this time around if he is not the nominee will have more to do with what Sanders himself does than whatever efforts by Trump or Biden, said Philippe Reines, a longtime Clinton adviser.
While Sanders ultimately endorsed Clinton and held events for her, the Clinton entrada felt Sanders just showed lukewarm support and wasn't as helpful every bit he could have been in getting the message out when and where they needed it.
"Ninety pct of information technology is what Sanders does," Reines said. "If Sanders doesn't beginning out with a clear intent to his people that his goal is to vote for Biden, Biden can't recoup for that."
Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/sanders-voters-helped-trump-win-white-house-could-they-do-n1145306
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